Are "One-and-Dones" a problem for the NCAA?
What effect has the limit had to date? That all depends on your perspective.
For NBA teams:
The main reason for the rule was to protect NBA teams from themselves, giving them one more year to observe players before committing multi-million dollar contracts. Has it helped in that regard? Probably. Looking at the results of the 2008 NBA Draft, it seems NBA teams invested a lot more in players who had proven themselves at the collegiate level -- like the twelve players from Final Four teams that were drafted -- and less in "projects".
For college coaches and administrators:
This is the group that has done the most complaining about the rule -- and for good reason. "One and done" players put a tremendous amount of pressure on college programs. Coaches are under immense pressure to recruit the Derrick Roses and Michael Beasleys of the world -- that's a lot of extra effort for players who might only be around for one season. It's also reasonable to suggest that kids who are only in college because the NBA won't let 'em in yet might not take their course loads -- or NCAA regulations regarding gifts from potential agents -- all that seriously. That increases the risk of lost scholarships or other NCAA violations (think O.J. Mayo) that don't impact the player but can have a devastating effect on a school.
For the players:
I probably won't generate much sympathy for players like Rose, Beasley or Mayo by saying the rule pushes off their millionaire status by a year and forces them into the ranks of big-time college basketball. But consider Greg Oden, the number one pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, who missed his entire rookie season recovering from knee surgery. What if he'd hurt his knee before the draft -- while playing at Ohio State? He might not have been the top overall pick. Depending on the severity of the injury, he might have dropped significantly. From a business perspective, playing a year in college is a huge risk for any NBA-ready phenom.
What's the solution? I'm open to suggestions. The Major League Baseball-style system proposed by ESPN's Jay Bilas and others seems to make sense. In that model, players would be free to declare for the draft after high school. Once they enroll in college, they become ineligible until after junior year.


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