Setting the target as "summer 2010" is a not-so-subtle way of saying, "he's out for the year."
The longer-term prognosis appears to be good... Rockets team physician Dr. Tom Clanton said,
This combination of procedures should not only allow healing of his navicular stress fracture, but also improve the mechanics of his foot to reduce the stress on that bone and give him the best long-term prognosis. This surgical option is similar to the successful procedure used by Cleveland Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskas in 2001.I read that as "once we get this corrected, we won't have to worry about losing the big guy 60 games into the season every year."
OK, so Yao will be back for training camp. The next question is... which camp? His contract includes a player option for the 2010-11 season, so he could choose to return to Houston. Or, he could opt for free agency, in a summer when lots of teams will have big money to spend. Of course, he may have trouble commanding big money -- being that he'll be coming off a season-long layoff.
My guess is this effectively takes Yao off the list of 2010 free agents. He'll exercise his player option, finish out his contract, and either re-sign with Houston or look to free agency in 2011.
Where does this leave the Rockets? They have some intriguing young players... Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza and Luis Scola among them... but it's hard to see them competing in the Western Conference this season while Yao is out and Tracy McGrady expected to miss half the year while recovering from microfracture surgery.
But one non-competitive year could benefit the team in the long run. This situation bears some resemblance to that of the 1997 Spurs. San Antonio lost David Robinson for the year after just six games and dropped from Western Conference contender status to the lottery. The ping-pong balls fell their way, and they landed Tim Duncan. Houston could be headed into the 2010-11 season with a lottery pick, money to spend, and a healthy Yao Ming.
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