And everything to do with free agency.
Redeem Team Free Agents
The six leading scorers for Team USA at the Beijing Games were Dwyane Wade (16.0 ppg), LeBron James (15.5), Kobe Bryant (15.0), Carmelo Anthony (11.5), Dwight Howard (10.9) and Chris Bosh (9.1). Three of those six -- Wade, James and Bosh -- as well as power forward Carlos Boozer and shooter Michael Redd -- may be free agents when the 2009-10 NBA season ends. NBA players typically aren't keen on risking injury in international competition when they don't have an NBA contract to fall back on; last summer David Lee -- then a restricted free agent -- opted not to participate in a Team USA mini-camp for exactly that reason.James, Wade and the rest will almost certainly be signed by August -- but will their situations be settled in time to train with Team USA?
Attrition and Injuries
Redd and Boozer weren't considered locks to make the team anyway. Redd wasn't used much in Beijing and has struggled with injuries since, and Boozer's bruising inside game isn't an ideal fit for the wide-open style of play prevalent in international competition.Then there's Jason Kidd -- by far the oldest member of the Redeem Team, and the only 2008 player to confirm that he won't be back. He'll be replaced by a younger guard. Defensive specialist Tayshaun Prince is another candidate to give way in favor of the youth movement, especially considering the fact that he's been slowed by back troubles. Swapping in younger players for some of these veterans will allow Team USA to get international experience for the next generation before the 2012 London Olympics.
Then there's Kobe Bryant. Bryant's competitiveness and ability to play through injury are legendary -- but you have to wonder if he'll be ready for another international competition in 2010, especially when the Lakers are considered a huge favorite to be playing into June.
The Next Wave
Fortunately, USA Basketball has been planning for the inevitable roster turnover by getting players involved in events like last summer's mini-camp. If Kobe opts not to play, Team USA can call on a Kevin Durant or Andre Iguodala. Boozer could be replaced with a more mobile big man like Lee, Brook Lopez or Kevin Love. And all the potential replacements have been part of the system already.Impact on International Teams
Of course, Team USA isn't the only squad with significant question marks. France's Tony Parker and Argentina's Manu Ginobili. China will likely play without Yao Ming, who is missing the entire 2009-10 NBA season while recovering from foot surgery. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is outspoken in his opposition to NBA players risking injury in international competition, which could present problems for Germany's Dirk Nowitzki, France's Rodrigue Beaubois and Puerto Rico's Jose Juan Barea.Team USA 2010 Roster
Going on the assumption that the 2010 Free Agent class is settled by the time rosters will need to be set, here's my first guess at what Team USA's twelve-man roster will look like. Note that I'm listing each player at his usual NBA position -- which isn't necessarily where he'd play in Turkey. Carmelo Anthony, for example, has been highly effective at power forward for Team USA.Players new to Team USA are in italics.
Point Guards: Chris Paul, Deron Williams
Shooting Guards: Dwyane Wade, Brandon Roy, Andre Iguodala
Small Forwards: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant
Power Forwards: Chris Bosh, David Lee
Centers:: Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez
Of all the key players from 2008, Bryant strikes me as the one most likely to pass on 2010 and plan for a finale to his international career at the London Olympics. His leadership and defensive intensity will be missed, but James and Wade are more mature now and ready to step into that role.
Adding Durant is a no-brainer. He'll be a key for this team in 2012 and beyond, and it only makes sense to get him some experience in high-level international competition. Roy and Iguodala are tremendously flexible players -- able to score or distribute the ball, while Lee is mobile, an excellent rebounder and has a deceptively good jump shot. Lopez is a heady all-around center.
It's hard to imagine any team -- with the possible exception of Spain, if both Gasol brothers participate -- beating that squad.
