Any of the above would be a nice consolation prize for the teams that come up empty in the Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes. Some fans have even started to suggest that a team like the Knicks would be better off teaming Howard or Paul with Amar'e Stoudemire - even if it meant passing on Anthony in the interim.
Sounds risky to me.
The first reason is obvious -- as the Knicks and several other teams learned in the Summer of 2010, having cap space does not necessarily mean your free-agent targets will sign on the dotted line. If it did, Spike Lee's number six Knicks jersey would say "James" on the back, and not "Fields."
But there's a bigger problem with the "wait until 2012" strategy. The NBA's collective bargaining agreement, the salary cap, free agency in general -- after June 30, 2011, they're all total unknowns.
NBA Free Agency in 2011 and Beyond
If the owners get their way in the upcoming CBA negotiations, free agency won't be quite as lucrative as it has been in recent years -- there will almost certainly be new limits on max salaries, and the salary cap itself could shrink.The owners will also push for changes that could restrict the movement of free agents in general. Reducing or restricting the number of salary cap exceptions would leave mid-level players with far fewer options in free agency. In the current system, the "mid-level exception" enables teams to exceed the cap and sign players for as much as $5.75 million per year. Eliminate that loophole, and a lot of veteran players would be forced to sign for less.
That wouldn't affect top players; guys like Howard and Paul will still pull top salaries. But they could have less flexibility than they do today, if the NBA implements an NFL-style "franchise tag."
Until recently NFL teams had the option to tag one free agent per year as a "franchise" player. That would prevent said player from leaving the team and automatically grant him a salary worth the average of the top five highest-paid players at his position.
The players will likely fight the franchise tag tooth and nail; their counterparts in the NFL absolutely hated it. But I'm guessing Cleveland owner Dan Gilbert will be a big proponent -- if the NBA had a franchise designation, LeBron James would still be playing for the Cavs.
