Size Matters

When in Doubt, Bet the Big Conferences

Everyone loves the underdog -- it's an American tradition. And at NCAA Tournament time, that tradition is in full effect. If you don't believe me, try counting how many times you hear about eleventh-seeded George Mason's run to the Final Four on Selection Sunday.

(Mental note: this would make a pretty decent drinking game. File away for later.)

The Patriots' run in 2007 was exciting because it was an uncommon event. Before you start picking some mid-major as "this year's George Mason," consider: teams from outside the "major" conferences -- the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC -- simply don't make the Final Four very often.

Here's a breakdown of Final Four appearances and championships in the last 21 NCAA Tournaments, with the conferences listed in order of Final Four teams.

ACC:

• Championships: 6 (North Carolina: 2005, 1993; Maryland: 2002; Duke: 2001, 1992, 1991)
• Final Fours: 21

Big 10:

• Championships: 3 (Michigan State: 2002; Michigan: 1989; Indiana: 1987)
• Final Fours: 15

SEC:

• Championships: 5 (Florida: 2007, 2006; Kentucky: 1998, 1996; Arkansas: 1994)
Final Fours: 13

Big 8/Big 12:

• Championships: 2 (Kansas, 1988, 2008)
Final Four Appearances: 10

(Note: The Big 12 was formed when the Big 8 added four teams from the Southwest Conference, which had disbanded, in 1996. For the purposes of this discussion we'll treat them as the same entity.)

Pac 10:

• Championships: 2 (Arizona: 1997; UCLA: 1995)
Final Fours: 9

Big East:

• Championships: 3 (Connecticut: 2004, 1999; Syracuse: 2003)
Final Fours: 6

Conference USA:

• Final Fours: 4

Big West:

• Championships: 1 (UNLV: 1990)
• Final Fours: 2

Atlantic 10:

• Final Fours: 1

Colonial:

• Final Fours: 1

Mountain West:

• Final Fours: 1

Doesn't look good for the little guys, does it? But wait... it gets worse. Three of the teams that represented Conference USA in the Final Four -- Louisville (2005), Marquette (2003) and Cincinnati (1992) -- all play in the Big East today. Memphis (2008) is the only current C-USA team to reach the Final Four as a member of that conference.

Along with the 2008 Tigers, that leaves George Mason's run in 2006, Utah's appearance in the 1998 championship game, the John Calipari/Marcus Camby UMass team in 1996 and Jerry Tarkanian's UNLV Runnin' Rebels (three Final Fours, one championship) as the only mid-to-small conference teams making deep forays into March Madness.

Meanwhile, 75 of 84 Final Four berths went to members of the power conferences... 49 of them to the ACC, Big 10 and SEC alone.

There are many theories as to why the big conferences tend to dominate. It could be the advantages in money, tradition and recruiting. It could be the fact that teams from the bigger conferences face tougher competition all year and are more "battle-tested" at tournament time.

This is not to suggest that a great team from a weaker conference -- this year's Memphis Tigers are an excellent example -- can't win it all. Just a warning that, if you do pick a Memphis, or a Butler, or a Xavier or a Gonzaga to advance too far, you'll be betting against a fairly well-established trend.